Global animal protein production will continue to slow in 2026, marking the first decline in six years in the production of major land species, with setbacks in pork and beef. This warning comes from Rabobank’s latest outlook report, which analyzes the structural and cyclical factors redefining the global market.
According to the analysis, seafood will continue to lead growth, followed by poultry, while pork and beef will end the growth trend observed in recent years. The scenario will be marked by lower protein supply, rising market volatility, and the persistent impact of animal diseases, all of which will continue to pressure margins throughout the entire chain.
The report notes that feed costs are expected to remain relatively steady, but processors may face challenges with underutilized capacity, potential trade disruptions, and changes in tariffs and protectionist measures, all of which could raise costs and curb demand.
In response to slowing global economic growth, Rabobank expects consumers to remain price-sensitive and adjust their consumption patterns by switching between different proteins. However, the report emphasizes that substitution is not always straightforward, especially in categories perceived as premium or higher quality.
Despite this challenging scenario, the animal protein trade has remained resilient, supported by strategic front-loading and focus. However, it will continue to be influenced by geopolitical tensions and evolving trade policies. Additionally, health, climate, and regulatory risks are becoming more strategic in the sector’s planning, reinforcing the need to raise biosecurity standards and adopt new approaches to disease management.
Finally, Rabobank notes that technology and artificial intelligence are still underutilized yet have high potential to improve operational efficiency, manage risk, and advance sustainability. In this environment of slower growth and price pressures, diversification, selective consolidation, and adaptation to consumer preferences will be key to maintaining the sector’s competitiveness in 2026.
