A study published in Global Environmental Change examines how global demand for animal proteins could evolve by 2050, considering factors such as population growth, improved economic conditions, and price behavior. Evidence indicates that increased purchasing power will remain the primary driver of this trend, particularly in regions where animal protein intake is still insufficient.
The global debate on meat consumption is often framed in general, poorly contextualized terms. However, scientific evidence indicates that changes in demand are driven primarily by economic and nutritional factors rather than ideological decisions or individual preferences.
This is confirmed by the study “Income, consumer preferences, and the future of livestock-derived food demand,” conducted by Komarek et al. (2021) and published in the scientific journal Global Environmental Change. The study forecasts the evolution of meat, milk, and egg consumption worldwide, using variables such as income, population, prices, and consumer behavior.
Demand for animal proteins will continue to rise
According to the analysis, global demand for animal-based foods will grow by 38% by 2050, equivalent to an increase of 14% per capita. This increase will be particularly pronounced in regions where consumption is currently, such as South Asia (49%) and Sub-Saharan Africa (55%), where access to animal protein would represent significant progress in nutrition and public health.
The authors clearly state that “income growth is the main driver of the increase in demand for foods of animal origin.” As living conditions improve, families naturally add animal proteins to their diets to balance them and gain access to essential nutrients such as iron, zinc, vitamin B12, and high-quality protein.
Prices and unexpected effects on consumption
The study also warns that price variations can produce effects contrary to expectations. A reduction in global demand for red meat could mean lower prices, which could revive consumption by making it more affordable, especially in high-income countries.
As the research suggests, “significantly reducing per capita meat consumption in high-income countries would require very profound changes in the relationship between income and consumption,” because adjustments in demand are usually accompanied by market mechanisms that tend to offset that reduction.
Gemma Ticó’s take: Context before generalizations
To a large extent, the global narrative on meat has been built on partial or decontextualized views, in which livestock production is often reduced to its environmental impacts, without considering technological advances, its contribution to rural development, or its role in food security.
Based on this evidence, Spanish communicator Gemma Ticó, a specialist in animal production and digital strategy, argues that it makes no sense to promote a uniform reduction in meat consumption worldwide. In one of her recent analyses, she posed a key question: Who is really being asked to eat less meat, and who, on the other hand, has not yet been able to access adequate quantities?
Her reflection is directly supported by Komarek’s 2021 study, which provides essential background for understanding a debate that is often oversimplified without considering the profound nutritional and economic differences between regions.
Regional solutions and a shared challenge
Both the study and Gemma Ticó’s analysis agree on a central point: the responses cannot be global or uniform but must be regional, evidence-based, and adjusted to the nutritional, economic, and productive realities of each territory.
In this context, the challenge for the livestock industry—including pig production—is not to eliminate meat but to produce it in an increasingly efficient, ethical, and sustainable way, incorporating technological innovation, animal welfare, traceability, and continuous improvements in productivity.
In a context where public discourse tends toward polarization, communication supported by data and scientific evidence is key to strengthening the legitimate role of animal protein in balanced, accessible, and sustainable food systems.
You can view the full study here:
Income, consumer preferences, and the future of livestock-derived food demand
Republic et al. (2021) – Global Environmental Change
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7612057/pdf/EMS140038.pdf
