The financial institution’s latest reports on the global animal protein market expect chicken to lead this growth with an increase of up to 3%, while pork should show a modest 0.1% recovery due to the challenging global scenario.
Recent reports from Rabobank, a leader in analyzing the global animal protein trade, provide a comprehensive overview of the outlook for both pork and chicken in 2025, highlighting the opportunities and challenges each sector faces.
According to these forecasts, chicken will remain the most dynamic animal protein, with an estimated growth rate of 2.5% to 3%. This growth is driven by its affordability, which is crucial given current economic pressures that are limiting consumers’ purchasing power.
The poultry sector also benefits from a growing preference for proteins with a lower environmental impact. In developed markets, where sustainability is increasingly valued, chicken has gained popularity over other proteins due to its lower carbon footprint. In emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa, demand is fueled by factors like population growth, rising disposable income, and changing consumption patterns that favor more affordable food options.
Rabobank notes that while chicken growth remains strong, Avian influenza poses a significant challenge for the industry. The disease has severely impacted production in various regions, limiting global availability and disrupting trade flows. Europe and North America, while leading in production and exports, are currently facing restrictions due to these factors, which could temper the anticipated growth. However, the poultry industry’s operating costs are expected to remain relatively stable, thanks to abundant supplies of key inputs like corn and soybeans in North America and Brazil.
In contrast, the outlook for the pig industry is more moderate. After years of decline caused by African swine fever, a slight recovery of 0.1% in global growth is expected for 2025. Although modest, this increase represents a significant step forward for a sector still grappling with structural and health-related challenges. China, the world’s largest pork producer and consumer, is set to lead this recovery following a poor performance in 2024. This recovery contrasts with Brazil’s forecasted 1% drop in production, which is attributed to various economic and geopolitical factors.
According to Rabobank, trade tensions and government policies are reshaping global trade in animal protein. The rise of protectionist measures, such as tariffs and trade restrictions, adds to market volatility and may limit access to key destinations. While inflationary pressures have eased, the overall outlook remains uncertain, and any policy changes could impact demand and the competitiveness of exports.
The reports also emphasize the critical role of biosecurity and sustainability in both sectors. The poultry industry has made significant progress in health risk management, adopting advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, improved vaccines, and advanced genetics. These tools are essential for mitigating the impact of Avian influenza and ensuring production stability.
Similarly, African swine fever remains a pressing concern in the pork industry, prompting producers to invest in technological solutions to minimize its effects and prevent future outbreaks.
In sustainability, both industries are facing increasing regulatory and consumer pressures to reduce their environmental footprint. Poultry’s relatively low environmental impact compared to other proteins provides a competitive advantage, especially in developed markets where these considerations are a priority. However, meeting these expectations requires substantial investments in emerging technologies, traceability systems, and sustainable agricultural practices, which can raise operation costs and introduce complexities for exporters.
Balancing sustainability, competitiveness, and adaptation to geopolitical changes will be crucial for maintaining momentum of both industries worldwide in 2025. While the global trade in animal protein faces challenges, it continues to be a key driver of export economies, highlighting the importance of innovative and resilient strategies to address future challenges.
